Jul 24, 2024
2024 U.S. Corn 61% Pollinated Under Generally Good conditions
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Weather last week was beneficial for corn pollination with adequate soil moisture and cool daytime and nighttime temperatures. The forecast for this week is calling for light showers across the Midwest with heavier amounts in the southern Midwest, the Delta, and the Southeast. Temperatures for this week are forecasted to be seasonal or below seasonal which is a good scenario for successful pollination, which hit 61% as of last Sunday.
There does not appear to be any threatening weather on the near-term horizon which should limit the downside risk for the corn. The forecast for the month of August is calling for above normal temperatures across the Corn Belt with the potential for below normal rainfall in the western Corn Belt.
The corn crop is going to get through the important month of July without any major widespread weather threats. In fact, daytime temperatures have been below normal for much of the month and it has been cooling off at night, preventing dark respiration, which makes the plant work harder at night if the temperatures are too high. There has also been adequate soil moisture across most of the Corn Belt, but it might start to dry out before the end of July.
Taken all together, July is on track to be a good month for the corn crop, which goes a long way to eliminating most of the potential downside risks for the crop. Therefore, the 2024 U.S. corn yield was increased 1.5 bushels this week to 181.5 bu/ac. The 2024 U.S. corn production is now estimated at 14.97 billion bushels.
The one thing that remains uncertain is the corn acreage. We do not know how many prevent-plant acres there were earlier this spring due to the wet conditions in the northwestern Corn Belt. I am using 900,000 less harvested acres than the USDA due to ponding/flooding in the northwestern Corn Belt and hail damage primarily in Nebraska. We will not know the prevent-plant acreage until the Farm Service Administration releases the acreage numbers. I think we can say with some level of confidence that there will be less harvested corn acres than the 83.43 million currently estimated by the USDA.
The corn is 61% silking compared to 62% last year and 56% average. The corn is 17% dough compared to 13% last year and 11% average.