Jul 17, 2024
2024 U.S. Soybean Estimate Unchanged at 52.0 bu/ac
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
The 2024 U.S. soybean estimate was left unchanged this week at 4.39 billion bushels and I have a neutral to slightly higher bias going forward.
The soybean yield was left unchanged this week at 52.0 bu/ac, but if conditions remain beneficial through the end of July and into early August, the soybean yield could move higher. The soybean yield is determined by the weather during the second half of July and especially during the month of August. There is enough soil moisture now to sustain the crop through the end of July, so the soybeans should enter August in good condition.
As expected, the July WASDE Report used the soybean planted and harvested acreage from the June Planted Report (86.10 million acres planted and 85.26 million acres harvested) with a yield of 52.0 bu/ac. I continue to use a soybean harvested acreage of 84.51 million acres, which is 750,000 acres less than the USDA due to the prior ponding/flooding in the northwestern Corn Belt.
The weather last week was beneficial for the soybeans with needed rainfall in the eastern Corn Belt and dryer weather in the northwestern Corn Belt. Temperatures were seasonal last week and they moved higher over the weekend. Temperatures remained elevated in the southern and southeastern U.S. and four of the five driest states are in the mid-South and South
Soybeans are 51% blooming compared to 51% last year and 44% average. Soybeans are 18% setting pods compared to 17% last year and 12% average.