Jul 11, 2024
2023/24 Brazil Corn Estimate Increased 2.0 mt to 116.0 Million
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
The 2023/24 Brazil corn estimate was increased 2.0 million tons this week to 116.0 million and I have a neutral bias going forward.
Brazil's corn estimate was increased mainly due to higher yields being reported by the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea). The corn in Mato Grosso is 76% harvested and Imea increased production by 3.1% from a month earlier. The states of Mato Grosso and Goias are reporting generally good corn yields while the other states are reporting disappointing yields.
The 2023/24 safrinha corn was 63% harvested as of late last week compared to 26% last year according to AgRural. This represents an advance of 14% for the week and the harvest continues at a record fast pace. Hot and dry weather has accelerated grain dry down leading to the rapid harvest pace.
Mato Grosso - The safrinha corn in Mato Grosso was 76.2% harvested as of late last week compared to 49.4% last year and 59.3% average according to the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea). This represents an advance of 13.8% for the week. The fastest harvest pace is in the mid-north region where 87% of the corn has been harvested. The slowest harvest pace is in the southeastern region where 56% of the corn has been harvested.
Imea increased their estimate of the safrinha corn production in the state last week to 47.3 million tons, which was up 3.1% from a month earlier, but still down 9.9% from last year. Improved yields contributed to the increase. The safrinha corn acreage was left unchanged at 6.94 million hectares (17.1 million acres), which is down 7.3% from last year. Below is the safrinha corn harvest pace in Mato Grosso for July 5, 2024 from Imea.
Mato Grosso do Sul - The safrinha corn harvest in Mato Grosso do Sul was 15.3% as of last week compared to 2.2% last year according to the Agricultural & Livestock Federation of Mato Grosso do Sul (Famasul). The corn remaining in the field was rated 35.6% poor, 22.4% average, and 42% good.
The safrinha acreage is estimated at 2.21 million hectares (5.47 million acres), which is down 5.8% from last year. The statewide yield is estimated at 86.3 sacks per hectare (82.3 bu/ac), which is down 14.2%. The safrinha corn production in the state is estimated at 11.4 million tons, down 19.2%. Corn yields in the northern part of the state are good, while yields in the southern part of the state are disappointing.
Last week, the consulting firm Agroconsult increased the 2023/24 Brazil corn estimate to 126.5 million tons due to increased safrinha acreage and improved yields. In contrast, StoneX last week lowered their 2023/24 Brazil corn estimate to 121.2 million tons due to reduced safrinha acreage and lower yields.
Conab will release their July Crop Report on Thursday, July 11, 2024. They are currently estimating the 2023/24 Brazil corn crop at 114.1 million tons. The July WASDE Report will be released on Friday, July 12, 2024. They are currently estimating the 2023/24 Brazil corn crop at 122.0 million tons.