Jul 02, 2024
2023/24 Brazil Safrinha Corn 49% Harvested
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
The safrinha corn in Brazil was 49% harvested as of late last week compared to 16% last year according to AgRural. This represents an advance of 15% for the week. The record fast harvest pace is due to hot and dry weather during the last few weeks. Yields are reported to be good in Mato Grosso and Goias but disappointing in the other states.
Mato Grosso - The safrinha corn in Mato Grosso was 62.4% harvested as of late last week compared to 33% last year and 43.8% average according to the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea). This represents an advance of 24.8% for the week. The most advanced harvest is in the mid-north region where 77% of the corn has been harvested. The slowest harvest pace is in the southeastern region where 38% of the corn has been harvested. Below is the safrinha corn harvest pace in Mato Grosso for June 28, 2024 from Imea.
Parana - Dry weather in the state of Parana is accelerating the safrinha corn harvest. The Department of Rural Economics for the state of Parana (Deral) reported that 48% of the safrinha corn in the state had been harvested by earlier last week. Of the remaining corn, 14% is filling grain and 86% is maturing. The corn is rated 18% poor (17% for the prior week), 34% average (31% for the prior week), and 48% good (52% for the prior week).
Corn yields in northern Parana are below expectations due to 30 days of dry weather during the grain filling period. The hardest hit area is northwestern Parana where some of the corn is being cut for silage instead of grain production.
Harvesting is progressing quickly in western Parana with disappointing yields, especially in areas with lighter soils. In southwestern Parana, corn yields are satisfactory but they are declining as the harvest progresses. Parana is the second largest safrinha corn producing state in Brazil after Mato Grosso.
Goias - In the municipality of Chapadao do Ceu in far southern Goias, the safrinha corn acreage is down 20% compared to 2022/23, but the corn yields are positive. According to the president of the rural Union of Chapadao do Ceu, the safrinha corn is 30% harvested and early yield results are positive. The corn yield is expected to average 130 to 140 sacks per hectare (124.0 to 133.5 bu/ac), which is quite good considering problematic weather during the growing season. The president attributes the positive yields to less damage from corn leafhoppers compared to the last four years.
Tocantins - The safrinha corn in the state of Tocantins in northern Brazil is 20% harvested and farmers are expecting production to be down compared to last year. According to the president of the Soybean & Corn Producers Association of Tocantins (Aprosoja/TO), the planted acreage declined in 2023/24 and the early yields are disappointing.
Yields are expected to be below the 100 to 105 sacks per hectare registered last year (95.4 to 100 bu/ac) due to problems during germination and hot and dry conditions at the end of the growing season. Over the last two months, temperatures in central Brazil have averaged 3°C to 7°C above average (5°F to 12°F).
Farmers have not forward contracted much of their anticipated production due to low prices and uncertainty concerning production. According to the president of Aprosoja/TO, with normal yields, the current price of R$ 48.00 to R$ 50.00 per sack ($4.10 to $4.30) would be enough to cover the cost of production. With the lower yields, prices would need to be in the range of R$ 55.00 to R$ 60.00 per sack ($4.70 to $5.15) to cover the cost of production.
Conab will release their July Crop Report on Thursday, July 11, 2024. They are currently estimating the 2023/24 Brazil corn crop at 114.1 million tons. The July WASDE Report will be released on Friday, July 12, 2024. They are currently estimating the 2023/24 Brazil corn crop at 122.0 million tons.