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June 11, 2019

2019 U.S. Soybean Planting 60% done, 33 Million Acres left to Plant

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The improved weather last week and over the weekend also allowed for farmers to make good progress in planting their soybeans. The 2019 U.S. soybean crop is 60% planted compared to 92% last year and 88% for the 5-year average. This represents an advance of 21% for the week. Based on the March Prospective Planting Report, there are still approximately 33 million acres of soybeans left to plant. Soybean emergence is 34% compared to 81% last year and 73% for the 5-year average.

Once again the slowest planting progress is in the eastern Corn Belt with the Illinois soybeans 49% planted (average is 91%), Indiana is 42% (average is 89%), Michigan is 45% (average is 87%), and Ohio is 32% (average is 89%).

Better progress was made in the western Corn Belt with 70% planted in Iowa (average is 95%), Nebraska is 79% (average is 94%), Kansas is 48% (average is 69%), and Missouri is 37% (average is 73%). Farmers in the northwestern Corn Belt also made progress with Minnesota 79% planted (average is 96%), North Dakota is 88% (average is 93%), and South Dakota is 43% (average is 93%).

Soybean acreage - Soybeans of course can be planted later than corn and if the weather cooperates, there is still time to get most if not all the intended soybeans planted. Therefore, I left the soybean acreage unchanged this week at 84.0 million acres.

If wet weather would return over the next week or two, then some farmers may consider the prevent plant option for some of their soybeans. Here are the important dates: June 10th is the soybean prevent plant date in North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, and Nebraska. June 15th is the soybean prevent plant date in Iowa, northern 1/3 of Illinois, southern Wisconsin, Michigan, and northwestern Missouri. June 20th is the soybean prevent plant date for 2/3 of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and eastern Missouri.

There may end up being some prevent plant for soybeans, but emotions also come into play when farmers make these type of decisions. Their entire lives are focused on planting and harvesting their crops. Farmers are risk takers, it’s in their DNA. If they were not able to plant their corn crop due to wet conditions and they opted for prevent plant, they will probably make an extra effort to plant their intended soybeans if at all possible.

So, they may not always make the sound financial decision when it comes to planting or not planting. The bottom line is that some farmers may continue to plant their soybeans past the time when they should have opted for prevent plant.

Soybean yield drag - Soybeans planted in Illinois on June 10th could have as much as an 18% yield drag and it gets worse as planting continues to be delayed. I did not want to get too aggressive on the potential soybean yields until we get a clearer picture of when all the soybeans end up getting planted.