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July 3, 2019

2019 U.S. Soy 92% Planted, 83% Emerged - Remains Very Delayed

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In the June Planted Report, NASS indicated that 80.0 million acres of soybeans were planted and that the soybean acreage declined in all 29 estimating states. They stated "By June 16, seventy-seven percent of the soybean acreage was planted with 55% emerged, 34 percentage points behind last year and 29 percentage points behind the 5-year average." So clearly some farmers reported their intensions instead of the amount of soybeans they actually planted. In my opinion, I think they underestimated the soybean planted acreage.

The soybean planting is 92% complete compared to 100% last year and 99% for the 5-year average. Therefore, there are about 6-7 million acres of soybeans not yet planted. The soybean emergence is 83% compared to 98% last year and 95% for the 5-year average. The slowest planting and emergence continues to be in the eastern Corn Belt along with Missouri. So there are about 14 million acres of soybeans not yet emerged.

Soybean acreage - I left the 2019 U.S. soybean planted acreage unchanged at 82.0 million acres. I also think the June Planted report was too optimistic in estimating that 99% of the planted soybeans would be harvested. That would be the normal percentage in a normal year, but this has not been a normal year. Therefore, I am going to continue estimating that 97.5% of the planted soybeans will be harvested. That gives me a harvested acreage of 79.9 million acres.